How Solana’s ETF Fate Hinges on Trump and Biden

• The Chicago Board Options Exchange filed for Solana ETF on June 10, 2024.
• Renowned Bloomberg ETF pro offers a bi-folded take on Solana ETF approval.
• Analyst claims Joe Biden’s re-election would deem SOL ETF “dead on arrival”.

Renowned Bloomberg financial analyst Eric Balchunas has rocked the cryptosphere by suggesting that the upcoming United States presidential election could determine the outcome of Solana’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) filings.

According to Balchunas, Biden’s victory would most probably spell doom for Solana’s ETF products. On the other hand, Donald Trump’s win would open up opportunities for cryptocurrency regulation, as “anything is possible” in such a case. The financial analyst also noted that mid-March 2025 will likely be the SOL ETF decision deadline.

What Are the Odds of Solana ETF Approval?

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) filed two Form 19b-4 applications two days ago on behalf of VanEck and 21 Shares. The filing disclosed several important traits of SOL which serves as an argument for the Layer-1 blockchain’s native coin to be listed in the ETF products. For instance, the description declares, “Much like Bitcoin and ETH, the Exchange believes that SOL is resistant to price manipulation.” 

Furthermore, the Chicago-based exchange’s letter to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledges that attempts to manipulate Solana’s (SOL) price have been made due to wash trading, but this does not impact prices on major exchanges, as “participants will generally ignore markets with quotes that they deem non-executable.”

Despite these developments, the overall belief that the Solana ETF will be approved by the end of 2024 is still pretty low at just 10%, according to the latest polls from PolyMarket. However, this should not lower the chances of a Solana ETF being approved in 2025, as Gensler’s crew will have 240 days to decide after the revised fillings are submitted, according to the SEC’s guidelines.

On the Flipside

• Several crypto aficionados on X suspect Balchuna’s tweet to be politically motivated, as Bloomberg’s ETF analyst didn’t clearly answer why Biden’s re-election would kill Solana’s ETF chances.

Why This Matters

As major jurisdictions explore crypto adoption, the discussion about blockchain technology becomes a pivotal part of the world’s political landscape.

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